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| ▲ Experts at the Stimson Center in Washington hold a press meeting in Washington on Feb. 9, 2026. (Yonhap) |
(LEAD) S Korea-Japan relations
(LEAD) Expert says Japan's LDP attracting far-right party supporters in election may augur well for Seoul-Tokyo ties
(ATTN: ADDS more remarks in paras 15-16)
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Feb. 9 (Yonhap) -- Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) having pulled in supporters from a far-right populist party during the weekend election may bode well for cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo, an expert said Monday, amid questions over the poll results' implications for the bilateral relations.
Andrew Oros, director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center, made the remarks during a press meeting, after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi led the LDP to a landslide victory in the general election on Sunday, securing 316 seats, up from 198, in the lower chamber of Japan's bicameral parliament.
Her party is believed to have reclaimed many of the conservative voters that had previously switched to the far-right Sanseito Party during last year's election. Sanseito had campaigned on a nationalist "Japan first" agenda, which includes its call for tighter curbs on immigration.
"(LDP) pulled in now the Sanseito supporters from the last time, and I think that's good for Japan-South Korea relations because I think Abe, who was the mentor to Prime Minister Takaichi, was able to control somewhat the nationalist right in Japan, not fully but he brought it into the mainstream," he said, referring to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who died in 2022.
"That had pros and cons. It caused some diplomatic incidents at times, but also it meant that it was more predictable for cooperation. So I think this is leading the pathway for deeper cooperation between Japan and South Korea."
His remarks came amid lingering concerns that buoyed by the electoral triumph, Takaichi could push for a hard-line security agenda that might strike a sour note with some Koreans who still have historical grievances toward Japan, a one-time colonizer of their country.
On the possibility of the LDP pursuing a constitutional revision on the back of a stronger parliamentary footing, Oros said that it could be "possible" but stressed that Japanese people fundamentally disagree on things that they want to see amended.
"Once you open up the idea of going on a referendum for one issue than other issues ... For example, freedom of information is a very big issue in Japan. Things related to the environment also are issues," he said.
Concerns in South Korea about a constitutional revision revolve around the possibility of Tokyo rewriting its pacifist war-renouncing constitution at a time when memories of Japan's wartime atrocities still remain fresh for victims and their families.
During the press meeting, Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, pointed out the possibility of a U.S. troop reduction in South Korea.
"Yes, I think ... you are likely to see a drawdown of some sort, some type of forces ... an attempt to try to reduce U.S. force presence on the Korean Peninsula," she said.
She added that the U.S. will especially target heavy army units in South Korea.
"I think that signal has been clearly sent," she said.
Speculation has persisted that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will seek a reduction of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) as part of an adjustment to focus more on countering threats from an increasingly assertive China.
Asked if there could be an increase in the air force portion of the USFK in the case of a force posture change, Grieco said that there is disagreement on the matter.
"There are some that see real value to having the Air Force there as another set of bases, potentially for dispersed operations, and others who think largely that South Korea will not allow us to use these bases, probably in wartime," she said.
Commenting on the possibility of U.S. President Trump reengaging with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the coming months, Rachel Minyoung Lee, senior fellow at 38 North, the think tank's program monitoring North Korea, said that it will be "very difficult" until the U.S. government drops its demand for Pyongyang's denuclearization.
She also noted the need to wait until the key congress of the North's ruling Workers' Party slated to take place late this month.
"It's at the ninth party congress where we will get a clearer sense of where North Korea is going in terms of foreign policy (and) defense policy," she said.
"I don't think there are going to be any shocking surprises because Kim Jong-un has been very consistently dropping hints that he's going to be bolstering further his nuclear and conventional military capabilities."
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