Expert calls for greater efforts to better deter N. Korea in 'gray zone' shy of full-scale war

▲ Markus Garlauskas (R), director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council; former Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert (L); and Sydney Seiler, senior advisor at the Korea Chair of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) engage in an online forum hosted by CSIS on Oct. 9, 2025, in this photo captured from a YouTube account of CSIS. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

NK-deterrence

Expert calls for greater efforts to better deter N. Korea in 'gray zone' shy of full-scale war

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Oct. 9 (Yonhap) -- An expert noted the need Thursday to better deter North Korea's potential "gray-zone" activities short of a full-blown war, saying that its leader Kim Jong-un could still resort to military force against Seoul even if Pyongyang does not have the ability to "overrun" South Korea militarily.

Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, made the remarks during an online forum hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"We have to think in a much more aggressive and risk-acceptant way of how do we better deter North Korea in that gray zone short of a full-scale war," he said.

The gray zone refers to an unclear realm between full-scale conflict and peace. Activities in the zone -- shy of a major attack -- create security concerns and confusion, but make it difficult for a country to respond effectively due to the often vague nature of the activity.

Garlauskas noted that the Hamas militant group pressed ahead with its attack on Israel in 2023, although it did not have the military power to destroy Israel, as he raised the possibility that the North Korean leader could also turn to military force against South Korea.

"Hamas did not have the ability to destroy Israel, but they attacked anyway ... Just because North Korea doesn't have the ability to overrun South Korea and wipe the ROK off the map with military force ... (that) doesn't mean there aren't scenarios where military force is rational for Kim Jong-un. It helps him achieve his goals," he said. ROK is short for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

"That is a real possibility whether it's in the waters off the west of Korea, along the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) ... could be somewhere in eastern waters, in the sky ... so many different places where North Korea has viable military options to achieve a tactical advantage."

Gray-zone activities put South Korea in a position where it is challenging "politically, operationally, strategically" to respond effectively and have confidence that Seoul can control escalation, he noted.

"That's what North Korea banks on," he said.

Seoul and Washington have paid growing attention to the possibility of North Korean provocations in the gray zone while focusing primarily on deterring a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula. Gray-zone provocations include Pyongyang's psychological warfare, cyber attacks and GPS signal disruptions to name a few.

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