Half of bond market experts predict consumer prices to rise due to Middle East turmoil

▲ People look at the prices of fuel at a gas station in Seoul on March 17, 2026. (Yonhap)

consumer prices-outlook survey

Half of bond market experts predict consumer prices to rise due to Middle East turmoil

SEOUL, March 18 (Yonhap) -- Half of bond experts in South Korea expected consumer prices to rise next month, as the effective closure of the Hormuz Strait amid the ongoing Middle East crisis is expected to fuel inflationary pressure, a poll showed Tuesday.

According to the recent survey of 100 bond market experts conducted by the Korea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA), 50 percent of respondents said they expected consumer prices to go up in April.

The reading marks a sharp on-month increase from 15 percent in February.

Also, 35 percent of respondents said they expected the Korean won to fall further against the U.S. dollar.

The local currency had fallen to its weakest level since March 10, 2009, on Monday due to the war in the Middle East, briefly touching the psychologically and technically critical 1,500-won threshold for the first time in 17 years.

Since then, it has rebounded to 1,487 won per dollar as of 11 a.m. Wednesday.

On bond yields, more experts said they project bond yields to go up in April, as the Bank of Korea (BOK) is likely to keep the country's base rate steady for a prolonged period amid the conflict in the Middle East and a weak local currency.

KOFIA added that its bond market survey index (BMSI) for April came to 90.5, down 5.7 points from 96.5 in March. A BMSI reading below 100 means more experts expect bond market conditions to worsen.

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