New elementary school enrollment to drop below 300,000 this year

▲ An undated file photo of new first graders at an elementary school in the southeastern city of Busan (Yonhap)

school enrollment-decrease

New elementary school enrollment to drop below 300,000 this year

SEOUL, Jan. 13 (Yonhap) -- The number of children entering elementary schools in South Korea is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time this year, due to the nation's rock-bottom birth rate, the education ministry said Tuesday.

The ministry estimated the number of new first graders at all elementary schools nationwide at 298,178 in 2026.

Due to the effects of population decline, the total number of students in elementary, middle and high schools across the country is also expected to drop below 5 million for the first time, it said.

The ministry projected a year ago that the number of new elementary school enrollment would drop below 300,000 in 2027 but has brought forward the timing by one year after reviewing various factors, including the registered population.

According to government data, the first-grade elementary school student number fell below 700,000 at the beginning of the 2000s, dropping from 713,500 in 1999 to 699,032 in 2000. Afterward, the number plummeted from 534,816 in 2008 to 468,233 in 2009, 401,752 in 2023, 353,713 in 2024 and 324,040 last year.

Based on this year's estimate, the number would decrease by 25.8 percent, or 103,574, in just three years, the ministry noted.

It then projected that the number of new elementary school first graders will continue to shrink in the coming years, falling to 277,674 in 2027, 262,309 in 2028, 247,591 in 2029, 232,268 in 2030 and 220,481 in 2031. The 2031 estimate is about 32 percent smaller than last year's number.

The total number of students in elementary, middle and high schools nationwide is expected to fall from 5,015,310 last year to 4,836,890 this year, the ministry said. The student population will then decrease to 4,661,385 in 2027, 4,488,023 in 2028, 4,280,164 in 2029, 4,056,402 in 2030 and 3,811,087 in 2031, the ministry estimated.

The rapid decline in the school-age population has presented a significant challenge to the local education sector. Elementary, middle and high schools are closing one after another nationwide due to a lack of students, while some universities, particularly those outside the capital area, are struggling to recruit new students.

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