US expert-economic deterrence pact
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| ▲ This photo, taken on Sept. 19, 2025, shows Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), speaking during a press meeting in Seoul. (Yonhap) |
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| ▲ This photo, taken on Jan. 5, 2026, shows President Lee Jae Myung (L) taking a selfie with Chinese President Xi Jinping after a state dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. (Pool photo) (Yonhap) |
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| ▲ This file photo, released by Reuters, shows U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping talking as they leave after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport in Busan, South Korea on Oct. 30, 2025. (Yonhap) |
US expert-economic deterrence pact
U.S. expert proposes S. Korea, U.S., others form 'collective economic deterrence' pact against Chinese pressure
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Jan. 21 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. expert on Wednesday floated the idea of South Korea, the United States, Japan and other countries working together to form a "collective economic deterrence" pact to counter China's economic pressure, amid concerns that Seoul could face Beijing's retaliation for its nuclear-powered submarine project.
Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), proposed it in an article published on the website of Foreign Affairs magazine, saying its goal is not to initiate a trade war with China, but to "stop China's coercion."
He also portrayed China as an "increasingly unreliable partner" for South Korea, arguing that Beijing has done little to stop Pyongyang's nuclear armament and refuses to comply with various U.N. Security Council sanctions on the recalcitrant regime.
"Individually, no country in the region has the political or economic heft to stand up to China. But collectively, they have enough leverage," he said in the article, titled "South Korea Can Stand Up to China: With Its Allies, Seoul Has Enough Leverage to Push Back."
"South Korea's best option is to work with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other G7 countries to organize a collective economic deterrence pact to stop China's economic aggression," he added.
His article came as U.S. President Donald Trump has approved South Korea's push to secure nuclear-powered submarines amid speculation that the U.S. might think that the Asian ally's acquisition of the strategic maritime assets would help deter growing Chinese threats.
The submarine project has stoked fears that as the project evolves, China might take economic retaliatory steps against South Korea as it did unofficially after Seoul announced a decision in 2016 to host a U.S. missile defense battery on its soil.
Cha pointed out that the proposed pact will need to "deem coercion against one to be coercion against all and for which there would be automatic retaliation" -- similar to the collective security agreement of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's founding treaty.
"The purpose of a collective economic deterrence pact would not be to start a trade war with China. Instead, the goal is simply to stop China's coercion. China suffers no cost for its threats or pressure campaigns on its neighbors because it assumes -- correctly -- that no single target would dare to retaliate," he said.
"But the threat of real costs could make Beijing think twice."
Taking explicit steps against China could be a policy challenge to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, as under his "pragmatic" diplomatic approach, he has sought to improve relations with Beijing while maintaining a robust alliance with the U.S.
His efforts for stable ties with China culminated in his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month, where the leaders sought to build personal rapport as seen in Lee taking selfies with Xi, using a Xiaomi smartphone.
But Cha said that the bonhomie between Lee and Xi is unlikely to last, as he pointed to the deal between Lee and Trump over Seoul's submarine project.
"Beijing will not forget about the nuclear submarine deal," he said. "China, in response to other geopolitical slights, has sanctioned at one point or another almost every Korean product, ranging from music to cosmetics to television shows to kimchi."
The expert highlighted the importance of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan working together to counter China's pressure, saying that the three countries have not done enough to support each other despite their earlier commitment to cooperating against it.
He, in particular, underscored the economic leverage that the three countries hold over China.
"There are 327 goods worth more than $23.19 billion that these three allies trade with China and on which Beijing is more than 70 percent dependent," he said.
He also called on the Trump administration to use its G7 presidency in 2027 to lead the effort to organize the economic deterrence pact "rather than levying tariffs on its allies," while urging Trump to voice U.S. opposition to China's economic pressure campaigns directly to Xi when Trump visits Beijing in April.
"Doing so would deter China by signaling that Beijing faces costs if it continues to pressure Japan or targets U.S. companies (perennial targets of Chinese coercion), and it would preempt Chinese retaliation against South Korea for its nuclear-powered submarine agreement with the United States," he said.
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