▲ Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaks with reporters on the sidelines of Asan Plenum, hosted by the Asan Institute of Policy Studies, in Seoul, on April 8, 2026. (Yonhap)

US expert-S Korea-Hormuz Strait

Trump may hit S. Korea with more tariffs if Seoul engages Iran over Hormuz transit: U.S. expert

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, April 8 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Donald Trump could hit back at South Korea by imposing more tariffs if Seoul secures an exemption from Iran for its ships' transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.

Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made the remarks at a forum, noting that Seoul is faced with having to make the "least bad choice" among difficult options regarding its vessels stranded in shipping routes effectively blocked by Tehran.

Cha noted that Seoul engaging with Tehran to get its vessels through the waterway would be one of the less favorable options, a move that could "risk upsetting" Trump.

"That risks upsetting Trump, and his response could be to levy more tariffs, punitive tariffs, we don't know," he said at a press conference on the sidelines of Asan Plenum, hosted by Asan Institute of Policy Studies.

Based on the CSIS' own findings, Cha said only a handful of the stranded ships would be able to pass through the strait even if Iran agreed, as most are linked to the U.S. or Saudi Arabia in terms of ownership.

According to the latest CSIS report, three out of four major South Korean refiners have U.S. or Saudi ownership stakes, with the exception of SK Energy.

The report also found that South Korea's government-only oil stocks would last just 34 days, while the combined total including private sector reserves would cover about 67 days.

Following Seoul's contribution to the International Energy Agency's emergency release, the reserves have been reduced to 77.6 million barrels, or about 26 days' worth, the report showed.

Considering the alliance and pending negotiations with Washington on trade and security, Cha said Seoul is unlikely to take steps to secure an exemption from Iran.

Cha said that other options for South Korea may include expanding oil imports from Russia through a U.S. exemption over sanctions against Moscow, but that would only be a temporary measure that will not help solve its long-term energy supply issues.

"It's a stopgap measure, and it's not the answer at all," he said, "I doubt South Korea will be the first mover on cutting a deal with Iran.

"What the South Korean government would do will be to watch Japan and see what sort of decisions Japan makes, and Korea will most likely follow a similar path," Cha added.

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