김은정
| 2023-12-15 08:00:05
(Yearender) Koreas-tension
(Yearender) Tension rises further as 2018 inter-Korean accord scrapped amid satellite rivalry
By Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, Dec. 15 (Yonhap) -- Tension on the Korean Peninsula rose further this year as North Korea in November scrapped a 2018 military tension reduction agreement in a tit-for-tat move against South Korea's partial suspension of the deal amid their intensifying spy satellite rivalry.
Following a flurry of ballistic missile tests last year, North Korea continued to stage new weapons tests throughout 2023, including launches of the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile in April and July.
Pyongyang also ratcheted up its nuclear threat by amending the constitution in September to enshrine the policy of strengthening its nuclear force and launched its first military spy satellite into orbit on Nov. 21, following two failed attempts in May and August, respectively.
In response to rising threats posed by the North, South Korea bolstered its defense posture in coordination with the United States, which increased deployments of nuclear-capable bombers and other strategic assets to South Korea this year.
The U.S. nuclear-capable submarine USS Kentucky made a port call at the Busan Naval Base in February for the first time since 1981, and a U.S. B-52 strategic bomber landed in South Korea for the first time in October to reaffirm Washington's security commitment to its Asian ally.
In less than two weeks of the North's satellite launch, South Korea placed its first homegrown spy satellite in orbit from the U.S. Vandenberg Space Force Base in California using a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket under a plan to place five spy satellites into orbit by 2025 to better monitor the hostile neighbor.
With prospects for resuming inter-Korean talks remaining dim, the conservative government of President Yoon Suk Yeol remained firm on his hard-line approach on North Korea under the principle of "peace through strength."
Yoon vowed to bolster alliance with the U.S. and strengthen trilateral security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan to deter the North's evolving missile and nuclear threats, criticizing his liberal predecessor Moon Jae-in's engagement policy.
"Our people will never be deceived by the fake peace tricks of North Korea's communist regime and its followers," he said during a speech marking the 75th Armed Forces Day in September.
The heightened tension and mistrust were on full display when South Korea partially suspended the 2018 military pact and resumed aerial surveillance near the border in protest of the North's spy satellite launch.
The agreement signed under the Moon administration set up buffer zones in land, sea and air and banned live-fire drills near the border.
In response to the decision, the North vowed to restore all military measures halted under the accord and warned the South must "dearly pay" the price.
Since scrapping the accord, the North has begun reinstalling guard posts and deploying heavy arms within the Demilitarized Zone, according to the South's defense ministry. North Korean soldiers in the Joint Security Area at the truce village of Panmunjom have been seen carrying pistols, according to people familiar with the matter.
Amid heightened vigilance near the border, a war of words between the two Koreas has ratcheted up in recent weeks.
In an article carried by the official Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 3, a North Korean military commentator warned a "physical clash and war" have become a matter of time on the Korean Peninsula and threatened South Korea will face "total collapse" if it undertakes any hostile act.
In response, South Korea's defense chief issued a strong warning that North Korea will pay the price if it carries out provocations.
"North Korea has only two choices -- peace or destruction," Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said during a meeting of top military commanders on Wednesday. "If North Korea makes reckless actions that harm peace, only a hell of destruction awaits them."
Experts express concerns over the frozen inter-Korean relations' implication in next year's major political events, amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and the changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Kim Jin-ha, a senior research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said North Korea could intensify psychological warfare or stage provocations ahead of South Korea's parliamentary elections in April.
Park Yong-han, a senior researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, raised the possibility of North Korea's conducting its seventh nuclear test around the time of the U.S. presidential vote in November next year to possibly intervene in the election.
"There is a possibility that North Korea may stage provocations to intervene in the (South Korean) parliamentary elections next April and the U.S. presidential election in November," Park said. "It may conduct another nuclear test by considering the pros and cons of former President Donald Trump's election."
North Korea last conducted a nuclear test in September 2017. Nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang remain stalled since the 2019 Hanoi summit between then President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ended without a deal.
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