ADB-economic outlook

ADB revises up S. Korea's growth projection for 2026 to 2.6 pct

By Kang Yoon-seung

SEJONG, July 9 (Yonhap) -- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday revised up its economic growth projection for South Korea to 2.6 percent from its April report, citing robust artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand around the globe.

The ADB's latest estimate marks a 0.7 percentage-point increase, with the bank also raising its 2027 growth outlook for Asia's fourth-largest economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2 percent.

In detail, the ADB said South Korea's export growth, led by global AI demand, is expected to serve as a key growth driver through 2027.

The semiconductor industry is also expected to offset downward pressures stemming from global energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions, it added.

South Korea's private consumption was expected to maintain a stable trend on the back of a strong stock market, robust earnings at tech firms and the government's support measures.

Potential hurdles for South Korea, meanwhile, include long-term energy supply volatility, Washington's tariff policies and a correction in the stock market, the ADB said.

Touching on inflation, the ADB projected consumer prices to rise 2.7 percent and 2.2 percent in 2026 and 2027, respectively, up 0.4 percentage point and 0.2 percentage point from the previous report, citing higher global energy prices.

Last month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its outlook for South Korea's economic growth in 2026 to 2.6 percent from 1.7 percent three months earlier, also citing the AI boom.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up its growth forecast for South Korea in 2026 to 2.6 percent this week as well, also up 0.7 percentage point from the previous report.

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